Trend & directionHull Moving Average · HMA
Alan Hull's low-lag average that stays remarkably smooth — fast turns without the usual noise.
Works best in trending marketsEngine-computed on a fixed sample series
What it is
The Hull Moving Average, or HMA, is a trend line designed by Alan Hull to be both fast and smooth — two qualities that usually trade off against each other. Ordinary moving averages lag price badly, and the more you smooth them the more they lag; the HMA uses a clever combination of weighted averages to cancel most of that lag while still keeping the line remarkably clean. The result is an average that turns very close to where price actually turned, without the constant jitter that plagues other fast averages. It answers the question of which way the trend is pointing right now, with far less delay than a same-length simple or exponential average. Because it hugs price so tightly and changes direction early, traders use the HMA mainly by watching its slope — an upturn signals momentum shifting up, a downturn the reverse — making it a responsive trend-following tool that still filters out most of the noise.
How it is calculated
The HMA is built from weighted moving averages, which give more weight to recent prices, combined in a way that pulls the line forward toward price. Starting from a chosen length N, you compute a weighted moving average of half that length, WMA(N/2), and double it; then you subtract a full-length weighted moving average, WMA(N). The doubling of the faster average and subtraction of the slower one is the lag-cancelling step — it projects the line forward toward current price, but on its own it would be jumpy. To restore smoothness, you take that raw combined series and run a final weighted moving average over it with a length equal to the square root of N, WMA(√N). So the full recipe is HMA = WMA(2 times WMA(N/2) minus WMA(N), over √N). The subtraction removes most of the lag while the final √N smoothing cleans up the result, which is how the HMA achieves speed and smoothness at once. Because of the square-root step, N is often chosen so that √N is a whole number, such as 16 giving 4.
Reading it, step by step
Read the HMA primarily by its slope and, on platforms that colour it, by its colour change. An upturn — the line curling from falling to rising — signals momentum shifting up, and a downturn signals the reverse; because the HMA has so little lag, these direction flips arrive noticeably earlier than they would on a same-length simple or exponential average. A line sloping steadily in one direction confirms an ongoing trend, and the steeper the slope the stronger the move. Price crossing the HMA is a secondary read, but the slope of the line itself is the headline signal because the HMA tracks price so closely that a cross and a slope change often coincide. The distance between price and the line is small by design, so you rely on the turn of the line rather than wide separation. A flattening HMA warns that the trend is stalling, and a curl in the opposite direction is the early signal that it may be reversing.
Best timeframes and settings
The HMA is versatile across timeframes and is used by scalpers on minutes, day traders on 5- and 15-minute charts, and swing traders on the daily, with lengths commonly ranging from about 16 to 55. Shorter lengths such as 16 or 20 make the line extremely responsive and are favoured for fast entries and active trading, while longer lengths such as 49 or 55 give a smoother trend read for swing and position work. The core trade-off is the same as any average but shifted in the HMA's favour: shortening the length increases responsiveness and the risk of reacting to noise, while lengthening it increases smoothness and lag, though the HMA remains faster than a comparable simple or exponential average at every length. Because the aggressive lag reduction can cause the line to overshoot, very short lengths in noisy markets can curl prematurely. Choosing a length that matches your timeframe and holding period is the main tuning decision.
When and where to use it
Use the HMA when you want an early, clean read on trend direction — as a trend filter that tells you which side to trade, or as a direct signal by trading its turns. It shines in trending markets and on liquid instruments where its low lag captures moves early without being whipped around by every wiggle. It suits traders who found simple or exponential averages too slow for their entries but disliked the noise of other fast averages. It is weaker in flat, range-bound markets, where even a smooth fast average will curl back and forth and produce false turns. Avoid relying on it alone in choppy conditions, and be cautious that its lag reduction can make it overshoot on a single sharp spike. It is best deployed as a responsive trend tool within a trending environment, ideally filtered so that you act on its turns only when a broader trend read agrees.
Strategies that use it
Slope-turn strategy: trade the HMA's direction changes directly — go long when the line curls up and short or exit when it curls down — using a length matched to your timeframe and placing stops beyond the recent swing, which works well in trending conditions but needs a filter in ranges. Dual-HMA crossover: plot a fast HMA and a slow HMA, enter when the fast crosses above the slow in an uptrend and exit or reverse on the opposite cross, combining the HMA's low lag with the robustness of a two-line system. Trend-filter strategy: use a longer HMA purely as a directional gate, taking only long setups from other tools when the HMA is rising and only shorts when it is falling, so the HMA keeps you on the right side of the trend while another tool times entries. In each case the HMA's early turns are the edge, and the main discipline is avoiding its false curls in flat markets by requiring trend confirmation.
Combining it with other indicators
Because the HMA gives direction with little lag but no measure of trend strength, pair it with a strength gauge such as ADX to filter out its false turns in ranges — requiring ADX above 20 to 25 before trusting an HMA slope change keeps you out of chop. A momentum oscillator like RSI or the MACD confirms that force accompanies an HMA turn and can flag divergences that warn a trend is tiring. Volatility bands such as Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels add context on whether price is stretched relative to the HMA. Pairing a fast HMA with a slower conventional average, or with a second HMA, gives crossover signals that are more robust than a single line's turns. Support-and-resistance levels help you avoid taking HMA turn signals straight into a structural barrier where they are likely to fail.
Where it fails
The HMA's aggressive lag reduction is a double-edged sword: it lets the line overshoot and occasionally curl the wrong way on a single sharp spike, giving a premature turn signal that reverses a bar later. Although smoother than most fast averages, it is not immune to whipsaw in a flat, range-bound market, where its early turns become a stream of false signals. Traders who rely on it alone in choppy conditions get repeatedly faked out by these curls. The very responsiveness that makes it attractive also means it reacts to noise more than a slow average would. The defences are to use it in trending environments rather than ranges, to filter its signals with a trend-strength tool like ADX or a higher-timeframe read, to choose a length appropriate to the timeframe so it is not needlessly jumpy, and to place stops that account for the occasional overshoot rather than acting on every single-bar curl.
A worked example
Take an HMA with length N of 16, so the recipe uses WMA(8), WMA(16), and a final WMA(4) since the square root of 16 is 4. Suppose the 8-period weighted average of recent closes is 102 and the 16-period weighted average is 100. The raw combined value is 2 times 102 minus 100, which equals 104 — notice how the subtraction pushes the value up above both underlying averages, projecting the line forward toward current price. That raw series is then smoothed with a 4-period weighted average, which might bring the final HMA to about 103.5, sitting above both the WMA(8) and WMA(16) and hugging recent price closely. If on the prior bar the HMA was 103.0 and it is now 103.5, the line is sloping up, signalling momentum shifting up, and a trader using the slope-turn approach would be long or would take a long entry. Because the HMA turned up while a same-length simple average might still be flat or falling, the trader gets an earlier read on the trend — the whole point of the construction — while relying on a strength filter to avoid acting on a false curl if the market were merely chopping sideways.