Trend & directionTrend Intensity Index · TII
M.H. Pee's measure of how strongly price is trending, built from its deviations above and below a moving average.
Works best in trending marketsEngine-computed on a fixed sample series
What it is
The Trend Intensity Index, or TII, is M.H. Pee's gauge of how strongly a market is trending, expressed as a single value between 0 and 100. It measures the balance between how far price sits above a moving average versus how far it sits below, over a recent window, and turns that balance into a strength score. To a beginner it answers: not which way is price going, but how convincingly is it going that way? A high reading means closes have been clustering firmly above the average, a low reading means they have clustered below, and the extremes mark especially forceful trends. Importantly, TII adds no direction the moving average does not already show — its job is purely to grade strength. It plays a similar role to ADX, acting as a filter that tells you when a trend is worth following.
How it's calculated
TII begins with a moving average of price over a major length — a 60-period simple moving average is the common baseline. For each bar within a shorter summation window, typically 30 periods (half the major length), it measures the deviation of the close from that moving average. It then splits those deviations into two buckets: the sum of all positive deviations, where closes were above the average, and the sum of the absolute values of all negative deviations, where closes were below. The index is the positive sum divided by the total of both sums, multiplied by 100, so it always lands between 0 and 100. When most recent closes sit above the average, the positive bucket dominates and the index runs high; when they sit below, the negative bucket dominates and it runs low. The heavy reliance on a long moving average and a summation window makes it a smoothed, deliberate measure rather than a twitchy one.
Reading it step by step
The centre line is 50, and it is the pivot of interpretation: above 50 signals a strengthening uptrend, below 50 a strengthening downtrend. Push beyond 80 and you have an especially strong uptrend, with closes overwhelmingly above the average; drop under 20 and you have an especially strong downtrend. Readings that hover around 50 are genuinely ambiguous — price is bouncing around the average with no clear conviction, and you should not force a directional trade from that. Rising TII shows a trend gathering strength, falling TII shows it fading, regardless of which side of 50 you are on. Because it grades rather than directs, always read TII together with the moving average or price itself: TII tells you how hard, the price tells you which way. The most actionable readings are decisive moves through 50 and excursions into the extremes.
Best timeframes and settings
The classic settings are a 60-period major length with a 30-period summation, and they suit daily charts and swing-to-position trading, where the smoothing produces stable, meaningful readings. Shortening both lengths makes TII more responsive and quicker to reach the extremes, useful intraday but noisier and prone to false strength signals. Lengthening them yields an even steadier gauge better for long-term position trading but slower to register a new trend. Because it is smoothing-heavy by construction, TII is not a scalping tool — its value is in confirming that a durable trend is underway. The responsiveness-versus-noise trade-off is pronounced here: cut the lengths too far and the index oscillates around 50 without telling you much. Keep the summation near half the major length to preserve the intended balance between the buckets.
When and where to use it
TII is a regime filter, most useful when you need to decide whether to deploy trend-following tactics or step aside. In trending markets it confirms strength and greenlights breakout and pullback strategies; near 50 it warns you the market is ranging and that trend trades will chop. It applies to any liquid instrument and any asset class, since it only needs closes and a moving average. Avoid using it as a directional signal on its own — a high number tells you the uptrend is strong, not that you should buy at that exact instant. It also lags, so it confirms trends already in motion rather than calling them at birth. Reach for it when your strategy needs a clean yes-or-no on whether a strong trend exists, and pair it with a timing tool for entries.
Strategies that use it
The primary use mirrors ADX filtering: only take trend-following entries when TII confirms a strong trend — above roughly 60 for longs, below roughly 40 for shorts — and stand aside or switch to range tactics when it sits near 50. A pullback strategy combines TII with price structure: in an uptrend with TII above 50, buy dips to a moving average or support, using the strong TII as permission to trust the dip will hold. A crossover strategy trades the 50 line itself, going with the trend when TII crosses decisively above 50 and reversing bias when it crosses below, though this is best confirmed by price. Exits come when TII falls back toward 50, signalling the trend's strength is bleeding away, or when a price-based stop is hit. In every case TII sets the context and a separate tool times the trade.
Combining it with other indicators
TII is essentially interchangeable in role with ADX, so you would choose one as your trend-strength gauge rather than run both. It pairs best with a directional and timing layer: a moving-average ribbon shows direction and TII grades its conviction, while an oscillator like RSI or a MACD crossover times entries within the trend TII has validated. Because TII is derived from a moving average, plotting that same average on price gives you the direction TII deliberately omits. Volume confirmation strengthens a TII-approved breakout. The Forecast Oscillator and Time Series Forecast, from the same analytical family, complement it as low-lag trend tracks that TII can vouch for. Keep the combination lean — a direction tool, TII for strength, and one timing trigger is a complete, uncluttered system.
Where it fails
TII is a lagging, smoothing-heavy gauge, so its defining failure is late confirmation — it validates trends that are already well underway and can be slow to register a reversal, leaving you long a strong reading right as the trend tops. The mid-range zone around 50 is genuinely uninformative, and the classic mistake is manufacturing a directional trade from an ambiguous number. Because it only grades strength, reading it as a buy-or-sell signal in itself leads to entries with no directional edge. In a market transitioning from trend to range, TII can stay elevated for a while after price has already stalled, giving a false all-clear. Cutting the lengths to make it faster simply trades lag for noise. Avoid the pitfalls by treating TII strictly as a filter, pairing it with a direction and a timing tool, and respecting that near-50 means do nothing.
A worked example
Suppose a stock has been climbing and you run TII with a 60-day average and a 30-day summation. Over the last 30 days, the sum of the deviations on days when the close was above the 60-day average totals 42.5 points, while the sum of the absolute deviations on days below the average totals just 7.5 points. TII equals 42.5 divided by 50, times 100, which is 85 — a very strong uptrend, well into the extreme zone. Reading this together with the clearly rising 60-day average, you take it as a green light for trend-following, so when price pulls back to that average you buy, confident the strong TII says dips should hold. Three weeks later the pullbacks deepen, more closes print below the average, the positive bucket shrinks to 24 against a negative bucket of 26, and TII falls to 48 — back in no-man's-land. That drop through 50 warns the trend's strength has evaporated, so you stop adding, tighten stops, and shift to range tactics.